TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$239

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $237, and the total volume traded to date, which is $239. This provides a clear visual representation of market sentiment and activity, allowing you to quickly assess where traders are placing their bets regarding the direction of the gold price during the specified timeframe.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd on Predict offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a range of potential outcomes for gold, this market allows traders to express their beliefs with real capital. This often leads to a more dynamic and potentially more accurate forecast, as it incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst report. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how the market’s implied probability differs from expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the price of 'down' contracts decreases, reflecting the shifting probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders participating in this market, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:30 PM and 8:45 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 8:45 PM ET than at 8:30 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could cause substantial price movements. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market’s odds.