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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$939

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $939—and the 24-hour volume, which is $941. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular market. The dashboard also shows the price history of the market, reflecting how predictions have shifted over time.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds offered in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide directional predictions about gold prices, they rarely quantify those predictions with the same probabilistic rigor as a prediction market. It's common to see analysts suggesting gold will go 'up' or 'down' without assigning a specific probability to either outcome. This market offers a more nuanced view, aggregating the collective wisdom of many traders to produce a quantifiable estimate of potential price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be higher or lower during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The current volume of $939 indicates the level of engagement in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 AM and 3:30 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 3:30 AM than at 3:15 AM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it’s lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Even significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price fluctuations.