TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$518

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $518, and the total volume traded to date, which is $518. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price change. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting real money on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, or from factors not fully captured in standard economic models. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream financial analysis, providing a unique signal for potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the odds of 'up' improve. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the majority of traders assign to each outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are always a real-time representation of collective belief.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:30 PM and 2:45 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that window, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger a reaction. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds for this market.