TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$828

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$199
$828
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:30AM and 2:45AM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $828, with $824 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to monitor market sentiment and see how others are predicting the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical instability and inflation concerns, this market shows a more balanced expectation. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals and can react more quickly to new information. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a forecasting tool like Predict.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds can shift rapidly as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of gold between 2:30AM and 2:45AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 2:45AM ET than at 2:30AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant news regarding central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the price. A surprise announcement from a major gold-producing nation could also cause shifts in this market.