TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,625

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$351
$2,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, as well as a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, indicating how much activity this market has seen recently. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,625 and the 24-hour volume is $2,621. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This can lead to divergences, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and potential outcomes. It’s common to see this market pricing in probabilities that differ from the most commonly cited analyst predictions regarding gold’s short-term trajectory.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. As more traders participate, the price of these contracts adjusts, reflecting the evolving consensus. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe gold will rise, the 'up' contracts become more expensive, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most current expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:15 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also create volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could impact investor sentiment. Any surprise announcements related to global economic growth or safe-haven demand could also cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market.