TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12AM-12:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,563

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12AM-12:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$204
$2,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,563 and the 24-hour volume is $2,537. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s predictions are solely based on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to analyst forecasts reveals a different perspective on the potential price movement of gold. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and technical analysis, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future direction of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market's consensus expectation, and changes in volume and trading activity directly influence the odds. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and responsive price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:00 AM ET and 12:15 AM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that period, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could trigger substantial price swings. Shifts in investor sentiment and currency fluctuations are additional catalysts to watch closely.