TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,138

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$165
$2,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,116, and the total volume traded to date, at $2,138. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets for gold, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about short-term price *direction*—up or down—and those beliefs are aggregated into a single probability. This can sometimes lead to a divergence from consensus analyst opinions, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and individual perspectives. It's a unique way to gauge expectations beyond standard financial modeling.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:30AM and 12:45AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 12:45AM than at 12:30AM, the 'Up' outcome will be verified; if lower, the 'Down' outcome will be verified. The precise price source used for verification will be determined by the platform's standard procedures.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could influence trading activity in this market and shift the odds considerably.