TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-9PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$777

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-9PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-9PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45PM-9PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$214
$777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T00:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T00:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:45 PM and 9:00 PM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $775, and the total volume traded to date, which is $777. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, the odds reflected in this market represent the collective prediction of traders on Predict. These often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which are based on models and individual opinions. While analysts may predict a certain direction for the gold price, this market captures a broader range of perspectives and real-time adjustments based on new information. It’s a way to see what the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ thinks will happen, as opposed to relying on a single expert’s view. Comparing the two can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving probabilities assigned by traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people bet on one outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract increases, while the price of the other outcome decreases. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds always reflect the latest collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45 PM and 9:00 PM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that timeframe, the ‘up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the ‘down’ outcome will win. The specific price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent result.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often cause significant price swings. Geopolitical events, like international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations, could all impact trading activity in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds.