TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

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4,415

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,938

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$13
$1,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,942. Total volume for this market is $1,938. This provides a visual representation of market sentiment and activity, allowing you to gauge where traders are placing their bets on the direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the potential for gold price movement. These probabilities are often compared to forecasts from financial analysts and polling data. However, it’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives and can respond rapidly to new information, potentially offering a different outlook than traditional analyst reports. This market, like others, can sometimes outperform or underperform compared to expert opinions, depending on the information available to both groups.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the wisdom of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 AM and 8:00 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 8:00 AM ET than at 7:45 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could significantly impact investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, like shifts in global political stability or major policy announcements, often drive gold prices as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market before Oct 21, 2026.