TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,301

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$201
$1,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 5:45AM and 6:00AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded, currently at $1,302. The total volume for this market is $1,301. This allows you to see how other traders are assessing the likelihood of each outcome and gauge market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict continued volatility due to geopolitical factors, this market's pricing suggests a more nuanced expectation. It's important to remember that analysts often rely on models and fundamental analysis, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or simply varying risk appetites among traders.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold rising also increases. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'up' contracts lowers their price and the associated probability. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:45AM and 6:00AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 6:00AM ET than at 5:45AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. If the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price data used for verification will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. A sudden shift in the US dollar’s strength or weakness could also play a role in determining the direction of the gold price.