TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$192

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $191, and the total volume traded to date, which is $192. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market's sentiment regarding the future direction of gold prices. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market’s expectations.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market allows participants to express probabilities for a simple up or down outcome. Comparing this market to surveys of financial analysts reveals a divergence in expectations, with analysts generally predicting a more moderate price change than is currently priced into the odds on Predict.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with increased buying pressure on the “up” side driving up its price and decreasing the implied probability of a price decrease, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most current collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price at 3:45 AM ET on October 21st and the closing price at 4:00 AM ET on the same day. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be based on that determination.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, could also trigger substantial price swings. Additionally, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Any surprise news related to major gold-producing countries or significant trading activity could also impact the market.