TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$796

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$213
$796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $798, and the total overall volume for this market, which is $796. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price between 9PM and 9:15PM ET on October 20th.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a collective prediction about the short-term price movement. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially reacting faster than slower-moving analyst reports.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 PM and 9:15 PM Eastern Time on October 20th. If the price is higher at 9:15 PM than at 9:00 PM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market's odds.