TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$419

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:15 AM EST

predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$352
$419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:00 AM and 7:15 AM Eastern Time on October 20th. You'll find a live view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $419. The total volume traded to date is $419, providing insight into overall market interest. This information helps traders understand sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer price targets based on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of the same data, or from factors not fully captured in conventional analyses. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in broader analyst consensus, offering a potentially valuable signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, reflecting the aggregate expectations of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 AM and 7:15 AM Eastern Time on October 20th. If the price is higher at 7:15 AM than at 7:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. Traders will be able to view the final result on Predict following verification.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, are closely watched. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these events could significantly impact trading activity and the odds in this market.