TOTAL VOLUME:

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$333,432,169

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

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4,654

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$172

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $171, and the total volume traded to date, which is $172. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously as traders buy and sell contracts.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on gold’s potential trajectory, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly through financial commitments. This can lead to divergences, as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ may weigh factors differently than individual experts. It’s common to see this market anticipate movements before they are widely reported or factored into standard analyst predictions, offering a unique signal for potential price changes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders believe gold will rise, the price of the ‘up’ contract increases, and vice versa. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM Eastern Time on October 20, 2026. A verified increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘up,’ while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘down.’

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected shifts in currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, and changes in global risk appetite are additional catalysts to watch. Any significant news related to gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also influence trading activity in this market.