TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$482

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 6AM-6:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$59
$482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $482, and the 24-hour volume, which is $481. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices, offering insight into market sentiment.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and react quickly to new information, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment than static analyst reports. While analysts may provide long-term price targets, this market focuses on a very specific, short-term window. It's a different approach to forecasting, with prediction markets reflecting what people are *willing to bet* on, rather than simply what they *believe* will happen.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price effectively represents the probability that the outcome will be ‘gold up’ as perceived by traders on Predict. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 AM ET and 6:15 AM ET on October 20th. If the price is higher at 6:15 AM ET than at 6:00 AM ET, the ‘gold up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘gold down’ outcome will be considered correct. The specific price data used for verification will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a price movement. Even large institutional trading activity could shift the probabilities reflected in this market.