TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$291

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:30PM and 4:45PM ET on October 20th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $291. The total volume for this market is $291, indicating the overall interest from traders on Predict.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding short-term gold price movements. While some analysts predict continued volatility due to macroeconomic factors, this market’s participants are expressing their beliefs through their trades. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and can react quickly to new information. This provides a unique signal that isn’t always captured in standard polls or financial reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 PM and 4:45 PM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international trade relations or increased global instability, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could influence the market, as could major news related to gold mining production or demand.