TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down?

Volume:
$756

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$53
$756
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-20T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, as well as a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $753, and the total volume traded to date, which is $756. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and the level of interest in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influences. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or where subjective factors play a significant role. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the price of gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market, offering a dynamic and real-time view of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 3:45AM-4:00AM ET on October 20th. The direction of the price movement will determine which outcome is considered correct, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 20, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, also tend to drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks can influence the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Any surprising news related to global economic growth or currency fluctuations could also play a role.