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412,077

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Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$467

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 20, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $455, and the total volume traded to date, which is $467. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term gold price fluctuations. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term price targets based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very short-term price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individual traders reacting to immediate news and sentiment. This can provide a unique, real-time gauge of expectations that differs from more static analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward price movement. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on October 20th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against reputable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also trigger safe-haven demand for gold, driving up its price. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold, as they have the potential to create substantial price volatility.