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410,482

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$365

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $365, and the total volume traded to date, which is $365. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price leading up to the event. The dashboard is a central place to monitor activity and see where the crowd stands.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are publishing predictions about gold’s performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market price in factors that haven’t yet been fully incorporated into mainstream analyst expectations, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the likely gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, essentially creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s consensus expectation, and changes in volume and order flow directly influence the odds. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of market sentiment toward the gold price.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM ET and 6:15 PM ET on October 19th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be successful; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be successful. The precise price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive investors toward gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or significant shifts in currency exchange rates, could influence trader sentiment and cause the odds in this market to shift. Unexpected news regarding gold supply or demand could also play a role.