TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

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$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$274

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 19, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM ET on October 19th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $273. Total volume for this market is $274. This allows traders to see how others are positioning themselves and gauge the market's sentiment leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might base their predictions on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals directly wagering on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or simply information not yet reflected in mainstream analysis. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they appear in conventional forecasts, offering a potentially valuable signal.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability assigned to each outcome by the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:45 AM and 6:00 AM ET on October 19th. If the price is higher at 6:00 AM ET than at 5:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The exact price used for resolution will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, can impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could trigger a shift in the gold price and, consequently, in this market. Monitoring these events is crucial for understanding potential price movements.