TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

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$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7PM-7:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 7:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 7PM-7:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the market has priced in different expectations over time. This allows you to see how sentiment shifts and potentially identify trading opportunities.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on rising interest rates. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk, offering a different perspective than traditional polls or expert opinions. It’s often the case that prediction market probabilities diverge from initial analyst forecasts as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions based on real-time developments.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregate expectations of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the gold price increasing, with the remaining probability assigned to a decrease. The market’s depth and volume provide insights into the strength of these beliefs.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 PM and 7:15 PM Eastern Time on October 18th. If the price is higher at 7:15 PM than at 7:00 PM, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major central banks, could also drive price movements. Additionally, any major news related to gold demand, such as large purchases by central banks or shifts in investor interest in gold-backed ETFs, could cause the probabilities in this market to shift considerably.