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417,059

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 6:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-18T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $10. The total volume for this market is $10. This information allows participants to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, it's important to note that this market's predictions are based solely on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals whether the crowd anticipates a different outcome than experts. Often, prediction markets can offer a unique perspective, potentially identifying overlooked factors or incorporating real-time information more effectively than static analyst reports. The question is whether traders believe gold will move up or down, differing from what financial news outlets are predicting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future gold price movement. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value during the specified timeframe, offering a dynamic assessment of market expectations. The market’s price is determined by traders’ willingness to take the other side of a bet.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:15 PM ET and 6:30 PM ET on October 18th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market. Major currency fluctuations could also play a role.