TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 10:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-19T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market's sentiment leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a real-money view of the likely outcome. While analysts may offer opinions based on models and research, this market embodies what people are willing to risk capital on. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur, offering a unique perspective compared to standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the odds are constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their views, creating a real-time assessment of potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the direction of the gold price between 10:15 PM and 10:30 PM ET on October 18th. The final price will be compared to its starting price during that period to determine whether it moved up or down, establishing the winning outcome for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in interest rate expectations could move this market considerably before Oct 19, 2026.