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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$124

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:15 AM EST

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$17
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment about whether the price of gold will increase or decrease during the specified timeframe. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour volume, currently at $124, and the total volume traded, which is $124. This provides a clear overview of market activity and how participants are positioning themselves.

Currently, it's difficult to draw broad comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as the market is newly established. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect real-time information more quickly than typical analyst reports. If analysts are predicting a significant price swing in gold, we might see corresponding shifts in the odds here. Conversely, if analyst opinions are divided, this market may show a more balanced probability distribution. It will be interesting to observe how this market evolves in relation to external forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future gold price movement. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome – gold going up or down. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which dynamically updates the odds displayed on the dashboard. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand from participants on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 AM ET and 7:15 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 7:15 AM ET than at 7:00 AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be correct. The precise price data will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, could also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant shifts in US dollar strength or interest rate expectations could move the market. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could also play a role in shaping trader sentiment.