TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$206

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 7:30AM and 7:45AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $207. The total volume traded on this market is $206. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in predicting the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, it's important to note that comparing this market’s predictions to external analyst forecasts requires looking at the general consensus for gold price movements around the specified time. Many financial analysts provide daily or weekly outlooks on gold, but pinpointing forecasts for a specific 15-minute window is rare. If a consensus exists, it’s often based on factors like economic data releases, geopolitical events, and interest rate expectations. The market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe will happen, potentially differing from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds dynamically adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their perspectives, offering a forward-looking assessment of potential price action. The current implied probabilities are visible directly on the market page.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the difference between the gold price at 7:30AM ET and 7:45AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 7:45AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, 'Gold Down' will be the winning outcome. The resolution process relies on publicly available financial data to determine the final result.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprise news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Even a significant shift in the US dollar’s strength could affect the price of gold, as they typically move inversely.