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417,059

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 6:15 AM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 6AM-6:15AM ET

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Settled
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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess the market’s sentiment and activity. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of each outcome, reflecting the collective prediction of participants on Predict.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw a direct comparison between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide price targets and directional predictions for gold, these are typically based on fundamental and technical analysis. This market, however, represents the wisdom of the crowd, aggregating diverse perspectives and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and this market offers a unique, real-time view of expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectation of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of traders’ willingness to take the other side of your bet, creating a dynamic and informative price signal. The current volume indicates the level of interest and confidence in each potential outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM Eastern Time on October 16th. If the price is higher at 6:15 AM than at 6:00 AM, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could affect investor sentiment towards gold. Any significant news related to major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors could also move this market.