TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$4

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $4, and total volume to date is $4. This allows participants to gauge market interest and understand how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe the gold price will be during the specified timeframe.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare this market's predictions with those of traditional financial analysts. However, broadly speaking, prediction markets often aggregate diverse opinions and can reflect real-time information more quickly than standard forecasts. If analysts are largely predicting a gold price increase, we might expect to see odds favoring 'Gold Up' in this market. Conversely, bearish analyst sentiment could translate to higher probabilities for 'Gold Down'. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent collective belief, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The more traders believe gold will go up, the higher the price of 'Gold Up' contracts will climb.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM ET than it was at 4:00 AM ET, 'Gold Up' will win. If it’s lower, 'Gold Down' will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding interest rates or monetary policy are also key catalysts. Unexpected news related to major gold-producing countries or significant changes in global currency valuations could also move this market considerably before Oct 16, 2026.