TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$160

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:45 AM EST

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Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $160. The 24-hour volume is reported as $160, providing insight into recent trading activity. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, a common pattern observed is that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or expert opinions. This can lead to differences in predicted probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of many traders. While analysts may focus on fundamental economic factors, this market also considers sentiment, unexpected events, and other factors that might influence the gold price during the specified timeframe.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'Gold Up' contracts will become, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on October 16th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, 'Gold Down' will be correct. The exact price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s standard procedures for similar markets.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates or quantitative easing, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, major shifts in currency exchange rates, especially the US dollar, are likely to affect the gold price and, consequently, this market.