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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$177

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:00 AM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $177, and the total volume for this market is $177. These metrics provide a real-time view of how participants are assessing the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. The dashboard is updated continuously as new trades are placed.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions. Often, this market will reflect a different probability distribution than you might find in traditional surveys or expert predictions. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's valuable to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the potential movement of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'Gold Up' contracts will become, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 AM and 2:00 AM Eastern Time on October 16th. If the price is higher at 2:00 AM than at 1:45 AM, 'Gold Up' will win; otherwise, 'Gold Down' will win. The exact price used for resolution will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding interest rate policy or quantitative easing measures are closely watched by investors. Even significant shifts in currency exchange rates could affect the price of gold, potentially causing substantial movement in this market.