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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45AM-1AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$49

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45AM-1AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45AM-1AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 1:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 16, 12:45AM-1AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $49 and the 24-hour volume is $49. This allows participants to quickly assess market activity and understand where others are placing their predictions regarding whether the gold price will move up or down by the specified time.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market’s predictions to traditional analyst forecasts, as those are often expressed as price targets or directional recommendations. However, a general comparison shows that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and can react more quickly to new developments than traditional polls or analyst reports. This market, like others, aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual expert opinions on the future of gold prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating odds that reflect the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a logarithmic scaling system to display probabilities, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available, influencing the overall market price and indicating the perceived likelihood of gold moving up or down.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 12:45AM-1AM ET timeframe on October 16th. Whether the price moves up or down will determine the winning outcome of this market, as determined by publicly available financial data at the time of resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, could also drive volatility. Additionally, significant changes in investor sentiment, influenced by news regarding safe-haven demand or alternative investment opportunities, could influence trading activity in this market.