TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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4,340

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$184

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T01:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T01:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $184, which indicates how much activity this market is seeing. Total volume for this market is $184. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about geopolitical events, unexpected economic data releases, or shifts in investor sentiment. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the future gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market participants assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an increase in the gold price.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 PM and 9:15 PM ET on October 15th. An increase in price during that window will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The exact price change will be verified against publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, changes in interest rates or the US dollar's strength could influence the gold price. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-holding nations could also cause substantial shifts in this market.