TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$197

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM ET on October 15th. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $197. The 24-hour volume is reported as $194, indicating recent trading activity. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on individual research and models. While analysts may offer varied opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, providing a single, quantifiable probability. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a potentially leading indicator of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM ET on October 15th. If the price at 10:00 AM ET is higher than at 9:45 AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive significant price movements. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger a response in the gold market. Shifts in investor risk appetite and currency fluctuations are additional catalysts to watch closely.