TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8PM-8:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$130

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8PM-8:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8PM-8:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8PM-8:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 8PM and 8:15PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently $130 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $129. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how it evolves as the event approaches. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market's dynamics.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. Many financial analysts offer predictions on gold price movements, but these are often expressed as probabilities or directional biases. While analysts are anticipating potential volatility in the gold market due to ongoing economic factors, this market offers a unique perspective by aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and translating it into tradable probabilities. It’s a different approach to forecasting than relying solely on expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updating as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The current implied probability of either outcome is driven entirely by user activity on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8PM and 8:15PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 8:15PM ET than at 8PM ET, the ‘Gold Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Gold Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant shifts in interest rate expectations by the Federal Reserve could trigger price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the potential direction of this market leading up to Oct 16, 2026.