TOTAL VOLUME:

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410,833

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$354

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total 24-hour volume of $353. Currently, the total volume for this market is $354. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on the collective wisdom of the crowd. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are assessing the likelihood of each outcome.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental or technical analysis, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when significant uncertainty surrounds an event. Currently, the market is weighing factors that analysts may not be fully accounting for, leading to potentially different probability assessments. This market offers a unique ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, distinct from individual expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of gold going up or down. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, constantly updating the market’s assessment. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the odds reflect the most current collective intelligence. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 8:15 PM ET and 8:30 PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 8:30 PM ET than at 8:15 PM ET, the ‘Gold Up’ outcome will be verified. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Gold Down’ outcome will be verified. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or statements from central banks could trigger price movements. Any significant news related to global economic conditions or risk aversion could cause substantial shifts in the odds of this market.