TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$6

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 7:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T23:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T23:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $6, and the total volume traded to date, which is $6. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional analyst forecasts, as there’s a degree of variability in how each assesses the potential for gold price movement. Polls and expert opinions often reflect a broader range of factors, while this market represents the collective judgment of traders specifically focused on the outcome during the 7:30-7:45 PM ET window on October 15th. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inherent uncertainty surrounding short-term market fluctuations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by informed traders reacting to news, economic data, and technical analysis, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between the start and end of the 7:30-7:45 PM ET timeframe on October 15th. If the price is higher at the end of the period than at the beginning, the 'Gold Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, 'Gold Down' will be the result. The exact price source used for verification is maintained by Predict.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger gold price movements. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.