TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$8

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11 PM and 11:15 PM ET on October 15th. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $8, and the total volume traded to date, which is $8. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts offer predictions about gold price movements, their opinions are often expressed qualitatively or with varying time horizons. This market provides a concrete, quantitative assessment of expectations for a very specific 15-minute window. It’s common to see prediction markets reflect a different perspective than traditional polls or analyst reports, as traders have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to be accurate in their assessments.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'Gold Up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aggregates the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11 PM and 11:15 PM ET on October 15th. If the price increases during that period, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could move the market. Unexpected statements from key financial leaders or large-scale trading activity could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.