TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$24

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Spread
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value by 11:45PM-12AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $24, with $24 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity related to this specific event.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds with traditional analyst forecasts. Polling data suggests a fairly split view on the short-term direction of gold, with many analysts citing economic uncertainty and inflation as key factors. However, unlike polls which reflect stated opinions, this market reflects what traders are willing to *risk* on a specific outcome. This difference can lead to divergences, as prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial incentives.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:45PM and 12:00AM ET on October 15th. A verified increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Gold Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Gold Down'. The specific price data used will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising news regarding central bank policies, particularly related to interest rates, could influence market sentiment and shift the odds in either direction. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price movements.