TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will gold be up or down by October 15?

Volume:
$82

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:15 AM and 11:30 AM ET on October 15th. You'll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the historical price action of this market. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded, currently at $82, and the 24-hour volume, which is $80. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and real-time sentiment than typical polls or analyst reports. While analysts might focus on fundamental economic indicators, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders considering various factors, including news events, technical analysis, and even subtle shifts in market psychology. It's a different way of gauging expectations for the gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of traders' willingness to pay for a particular outcome, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 11:30 AM ET on October 15th than it was at 11:15 AM ET. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s standard procedures for establishing a reliable and objective benchmark.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Even surprising statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could cause a shift in the gold price. Keep an eye on these developments, as they are likely to create volatility in this market.