TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$49

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:15 PM EST

predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10PM and 10:15PM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $49, and the total volume traded to date, which is $49. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those vary widely. However, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of opinions and information, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than any single analyst. If most analysts predict gold will go up, we might see the 'Gold Up' outcome favored here, but the market can also reflect factors analysts may overlook. The collective wisdom of traders participating in this market provides a unique perspective on the likely price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a direct result of traders’ willingness to bet on either outcome, and the market adjusts dynamically as new information becomes available and opinions shift.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10PM and 10:15PM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 10:15PM ET than at 10PM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive price movements. Even significant news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could cause shifts in sentiment and trading activity. Any unexpected news that affects investor risk appetite could also move this market substantially.