TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$78

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:15 AM EST

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of gold to go up or down between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, giving insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the current 24-hour trading volume of $78, indicating how actively this market is being traded. Total volume for this market currently stands at $78.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts offer predictions on gold price movements, their methodologies and time horizons often differ significantly from those reflected in this market. This market focuses on a very specific 15-minute window, whereas analysts typically provide broader outlooks. It's possible to see if the general direction predicted by this market aligns with prevailing analyst sentiment, but a precise comparison is challenging given the differing scopes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified time frame. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their perspectives on the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of gold, as reported by a major financial data provider, increased or decreased between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM ET on October 15th. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the 'Gold Up' or 'Gold Down' outcome is declared.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could move this market. Changes in interest rate expectations by central banks are also key signals to watch.