TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$42
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-15T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 15th. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, providing insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $40, and the total volume traded to date, which is $42. This allows you to gauge market interest and activity in this specific prediction market.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those vary widely and are often qualitative. However, prediction markets like this one often aggregate diverse opinions and can provide a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions. If analysts generally predict a stable gold price, we might expect to see probabilities closer to 50/50 in this market. Conversely, strong bullish or bearish sentiment from analysts could translate to a more skewed probability distribution. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 15th. If the price is higher at 10:45AM ET than at 10:30AM ET, the 'Gold Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Gold Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 15, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate changes, can have a substantial effect. Any surprise announcements related to gold production or demand from major economies could also move this market.