TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 15, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 10:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular prediction market. The dashboard also displays price history, providing a record of how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market's predictions are based solely on the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals how the crowd’s expectations align with, or diverge from, professional predictions. Often, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than traditional polls or expert opinions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments. However, it's crucial to remember that neither prediction markets nor analyst forecasts are guaranteed to be accurate.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15 PM ET and 10:30 PM ET on October 15th. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will be correct. Any price change, no matter how small, will determine the winner of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could trigger price movements. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite are also key signals to watch that could move this market.