TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gemini 4.0 released by ...?
predict

Gemini 4.0 released by ...?

Volume:
$11,620

October 31

 - Predict

October 31 - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 12:10 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

October 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$297
$516
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Yes
predict

November 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$92
$47
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
Yes
predict

September 30

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
No
predict

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
No
predict

September 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 1h
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Gemini 4.0 release market tracks the implied probability of release before December 1, 2026, as reflected in the current trading prices. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the odds have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $11,620. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are responding to news and developments related to Google’s Gemini project.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests an 88% probability that Gemini 4.0 will be released by November 30, 2026. This is notably higher than many analyst forecasts, which are more divided on the timing of the release. While some analysts predict a launch in late 2026, others anticipate delays into 2027 due to the complexities of developing and deploying such a large language model. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions, and this market reflects a strong belief in a near-term release.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Google officially announces the release of Gemini 4.0 before the resolution date. Any official announcement from Google, or widespread, reliable reporting confirming a public release, will be considered for determining the outcome. The market will settle based on the verifiable release date, if any, as reported by trusted news sources and Google’s official channels.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Positive developments in Gemini 4.0’s testing phase, such as demonstrations of improved performance or capabilities, could drive up the price. Conversely, reports of significant technical challenges or delays in development could lower it. Announcements from Google regarding their AI roadmap or release schedule will be particularly influential. Major competitive announcements from other AI developers, like OpenAI, could also shift sentiment in this market, as traders assess the relative positioning of Gemini 4.0.