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FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on October 5?
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FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$35

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 2:13 PM EST

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FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on October 5?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Monday, October 5, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Monday, October 5, 2026 is lower than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If UKX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by FTSE 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Monday, October 5, 2026 is higher than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for FTSE 100 (UKX) on Monday, October 5, 2026 is lower than the official FTSE 100 Index closing price for UKX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If UKX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by FTSE 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the FTSE 100 direction market tracks the current odds of the index closing up or down on October 5. It displays the implied probability of each outcome, as determined by traders on the platform. You can also view the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $35, and the total volume traded to date, which is $35. This provides a real-time view of how the market is perceiving the potential movement of the FTSE 100.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of the FTSE 100 closing up on October 5. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which are more divided on the index's direction. While some analysts predict modest gains, others anticipate a period of consolidation or even a slight decline. It’s important to remember that prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while analyst forecasts represent individual opinions, and this market offers a different perspective on potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the FTSE 100’s direction. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to take a position on either the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome, and the implied probability is derived from this price. The market’s efficiency depends on active participation and informed trading.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of the FTSE 100 index on October 5 will be used to determine whether the market settles to the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from a recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and objectivity in the process. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or acknowledge losses following the official resolution.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could shift investor sentiment and influence the FTSE 100’s trajectory. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global market conditions could also trigger volatility. Furthermore, company-specific news, particularly from large-cap constituents of the FTSE 100, could move the market. Any significant news affecting the overall economic outlook or investor risk appetite has the potential to alter the odds in this market.