TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Fed Decision in October?
predict

Fed Decision in October?

Jul 27, 2026, 12:19 PM EST - Oct 28, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,810,247
Volume 24h:
$209,187
36%
Liquidity:
$769,508
48%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

No change

 - Predict

No change - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Time left: 13d:19h:27m

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

75%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 75.5¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 75% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% APY not meaningful 13 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

No change

Trade
75%
5%
Yes 75.5¢No 25.2¢
0.7¢
$102,905
$527,215
20%
104%
N/A
1w 6d 19h
active
predict

25 bps increase

Trade
23%
4%
Yes 22.7¢No 77.4¢
0.1¢
$92,573
$315,916
23%
109%
N/A
1w 6d 19h
active
predict

50+ bps increase

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$217,401
$286,118
19%
30%
N/A
1w 6d 19h
active
predict

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$144,162
$443,721
0.3%
92%
N/A
1w 6d 19h
active
predict

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$212,467
$237,277
6%
85%
N/A
1w 6d 19h
active
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will change interest rates following its October 2026 meeting, with the primary outcome being no change to the rate. Currently, Predict gives this outcome a 76.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – a 25 basis point increase – is at 22.8%. Resolution will be based on the FOMC’s statement released after their meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026, as detailed on the Federal Reserve’s official calendar. Keep a close watch on economic indicators released leading up to the October 28, 2026 date, as these will likely influence the committee’s decision.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are pricing in a roughly 56.1% chance of the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 basis points after the October 2026 meeting. This contrasts with typical analyst forecasts, which often rely on economic models and expert opinions. It’s important to remember that analysts’ predictions represent their informed estimates, while this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders willing to put their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data or the incorporation of less quantifiable factors into market pricing.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises accordingly. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for exposure to each potential scenario regarding the October Fed decision. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s official announcement regarding its interest rate decision following the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The outcome will be determined by whether or not the Fed increases the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched by traders. Unexpected shifts in these indicators could lead to adjustments in expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials, including speeches and press conferences, can influence market sentiment. Geopolitical events and unexpected economic shocks could also introduce volatility and cause the probabilities in this market to shift.