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Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of November 3, 2026
polymarket

Will any state have exceptional drought by November 5, 2026?

Oct 29, 2026, 9:00 AM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
N/A
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$7
68%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Alabama

 - Polymarket

Alabama - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:07h:58m

Will Alabama have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?

50%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 240% Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Alabama

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Arizona

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Arkansas

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

California

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Colorado

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Florida

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Georgia

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Idaho

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Illinois

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Indiana

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Iowa

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Kansas

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Kentucky

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Louisiana

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Minnesota

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Mississippi

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Missouri

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Montana

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Nebraska

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Nevada

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

New Mexico

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

North Dakota

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Oklahoma

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

Oregon

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
polymarket

South Carolina

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
$0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 58m
Active
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 33 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for November: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed state that has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". States appear only during the months in which they plausibly reach D4, so this event's roster changes through the year. 33 of the 48 coterminous states are in season for November: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming. A state absent from this event is not making any claim about that state's drought — it simply has no market this week. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 US drought market displays the current probabilities associated with each US state experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions during the week of November 3, 2026. You can view the implied probabilities for each state, track the total volume traded, and see the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. The dashboard also shows which states are currently favored by traders to meet the D4 drought classification.

Currently, comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals differing perspectives on the likelihood of severe drought conditions in 2026. While analysts often rely on climate models and historical data, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who can incorporate a wider range of information, including real-time conditions and subjective assessments. It’s important to note that analysts’ forecasts are not always directly comparable to the probabilities expressed in this market, as they may assess different aspects of drought risk or use different timeframes. The market offers a unique, forward-looking view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether a state will experience Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. As more shares are bought for a particular state, the implied probability of that outcome increases, and the price of shares rises. Conversely, selling shares decreases the probability and lowers the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of drought risk. The market’s liquidity, indicated by trading volume, also influences price discovery.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) will be used to determine if any state has reached D4 (Exceptional Drought) status for the week of November 3, 2026. The USDM provides a weekly map of drought conditions across the United States, and its assessment will be the basis for determining the winning outcomes in this market. The resolution will be based on the official USDM classification for that specific week.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 5, 2026. Major weather patterns, such as the development of a strong El Niño or La Niña, would be closely watched. Significant changes in long-range precipitation forecasts from organizations like the Climate Prediction Center could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected heatwaves or prolonged periods of below-average rainfall in key agricultural regions would likely increase probabilities for affected states. Additionally, government reports on water levels in major reservoirs and the implementation of drought restrictions could influence trading activity in this market.