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Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 8?
polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 8?

Volume:
$57

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 8?

 - Polymarket

Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 8? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 7:05 PM EST

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Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) Up or Down on September 8?

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 8, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 8, 2026, or if September 8, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) on September 8, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 8, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 8, 2026, or if September 8, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.EUR%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds that the EUR/USD exchange rate will be higher or lower on September 8. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded, currently at $57, and the 24-hour volume, which is $31. The dashboard also displays the implied probability of each outcome, allowing you to quickly assess market sentiment regarding the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate. This provides a clear view of how the prediction market is valuing potential future movements.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong consensus regarding the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate. When compared to typical analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a different perspective, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information than traditional models. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probabilistic forecast based on the collective wisdom of traders. It’s important to note that analyst predictions and prediction market probabilities are distinct signals, each with its own strengths and limitations when assessing the future of the EUR/USD exchange rate.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official EUR/USD exchange rate at a specified time on September 8, as determined by a widely recognized financial data source. This market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the start of the period, providing a clear outcome based on observable market data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases from the Eurozone and the United States, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are likely to influence trader sentiment. Unexpected policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding interest rates or quantitative easing could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global trade tensions or unexpected political developments, could also contribute to volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate and, consequently, in this market.