TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a complex view of future Ethereum prices. Comparing these odds to traditional spot price expectations—derived from analyst forecasts and futures contracts—reveals how traders weigh various factors influencing the cryptocurrency's value. This market provides a forward-looking perspective, aggregating the beliefs of many participants, which may differ from those expressed in polls or by individual analysts. The collective wisdom of the crowd often presents a unique viewpoint on potential price movements.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different Ethereum price ranges. The prices of these contracts directly reflect the perceived probability of each price range occurring on October 9. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a specific price range is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Ethereum as recorded on a widely recognized and trusted exchange at a specific time on October 9. The exact price used for resolution will be determined by Polymarket’s methodology, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final price.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 9, 2026. Major developments in Ethereum’s technology, such as successful upgrades or unexpected bugs, could influence price. Broader macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, can also impact cryptocurrency markets. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency or blockchain technology are another key catalyst. Finally, significant news regarding the adoption of Ethereum by institutions or large corporations could also drive substantial price movements in this market.