TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 12:16 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, the implied probability from this market suggests traders are pricing in expectations for the Ethereum price on October 8. These expectations are formed by individuals and entities with varying levels of expertise, potentially incorporating technical analysis, fundamental research, and broader market sentiment. Comparing these odds to those from traditional financial forecasts, such as analyst price targets or futures contracts, can reveal divergences or areas of agreement regarding the future price of Ethereum. This market offers a unique, forward-looking perspective on price expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different Ethereum price ranges. The price of each share reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that price range occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time estimate of future price expectations. The volume traded in each price range also indicates the level of conviction behind those predictions, offering further insight into market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome determined by the price of Ethereum on that date. The resolution will be verified against credible public reporting of the Ethereum price from a widely-recognized source. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by the platform’s established methodology, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 8, 2026. Major developments in the Ethereum network, such as successful upgrades or unexpected technical issues, could influence trader sentiment. Broader macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or inflation data, may also affect the price of Ethereum and therefore this market. Regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, especially Ethereum, could create volatility. Finally, significant news regarding the adoption of Ethereum by institutions or large corporations could also drive price movements and shift the odds in this market.