TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 12:24 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the Ethereum price on October 6. These expectations are often compared to those found in traditional financial markets, analyst forecasts, and polling data. If a significant difference emerges between the implied probability on Polymarket and broader expectations, it could suggest that the market believes information not yet reflected in other sources. This market provides a unique perspective on future price movements, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and offering an alternative to conventional forecasting methods.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the Ethereum price on October 6. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to changing conditions and provides a real-time assessment of Ethereum’s potential price trajectory.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Ethereum price on October 6 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and trusted source for Ethereum pricing data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result. It’s important to monitor news and developments related to Ethereum leading up to this date, as they could significantly impact the market’s outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 6, 2026. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, significant technological upgrades to the Ethereum network (like the Dencun upgrade), or unexpected macroeconomic events could all influence trader sentiment. Large-scale adoption of Ethereum by institutions or notable shifts in the broader cryptocurrency market could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market and anticipating potential shifts in the implied probability of different outcomes.